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January 12th,
2007 - Pentagon Memo Predicts 10,000 or More American Soldiers Could Die News article by Capitol Hill Blue |
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Pentagon Memo Predicts
10,000 or More American Soldiers Could Die in Iraq by 2008 Capitol Hill Blue January 12, 2007 6:27 AM Pentagon planners this week
warned President George W. Bush that his "troop surge" plan could
double U.S. casualties in Iraq in the coming year and result in 10,000 or
more American deaths by the end of 2008. In a classified assessment
memo, military experts predicted violence against U.S. troops will increase
"at a sustained pace" and concluded that increasing the use of
soldiers for house to house searches in Baghdad will "dramatically
alter" the "ratio of casualties to actions" in that civil-war
torn city, says a military source familiar with the memo. The Pentagon report admitted
battle weary soldiers are more prone to mistakes that lead to casualties and
noted that military personnel sent to Iraq for third and possibly fourth
tours increase the odds that those soldiers will become casualties of war. The memo concluded that
American military deaths could top 6,000 by the end of 2007 and exceed 10,000
or more in 2008 with more than 100,000 wounded and/or maimed for life. In an appearance before the
Senate Armed Services committee Thursday, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
refused to provide an estimate of U.S. casualties, saying such estimates are
not possible but the Pentagon assessment had been delivered to the White
House on Tuesday, two days before her testimony. Military planners, as a
matter of course, prepare casualty estimates as part of any action. Senators from both sides of
the aisle told Rice they did not believe her testimony, saying too many Bush
administration officials have lied to Congress too many times. The casualty assessment
comes as the Pentagon abandons its limit on the time a citizen-soldier can be
required to serve on active duty, officials said Thursday, a major change
that reflects an Army stretched thin by longer-than-expected combat in Iraq. The day after President Bush
announced his plan for a deeper U.S. military commitment in Iraq, Gen. Peter
Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters the change in
reserve policy would have been made anyway because active-duty troops already
were getting too little time between their combat tours. The Pentagon also announced
it is proposing to Congress that the size of the Army be increased by 65,000,
to 547,000 and that the Marine Corps, the smallest of the services, grow by
27,000, to 202,000, over the next five years. No cost estimate was provided,
but officials said it would be at least several billion dollars. Until now, the Pentagon's
policy on the Guard or Reserve was that members' cumulative time on active
duty for the Iraq or Afghan wars could not exceed 24 months. That cumulative
limit is now lifted; the remaining limit is on the length of any single
mobilization, which may not exceed 24 consecutive months, Pace said. In other words, a
citizen-soldier could be mobilized for a 24-month stretch in Iraq or
Afghanistan, then demobilized and allowed to return to civilian life, only to
be mobilized a second time for as much as an additional 24 months. In
practice, Pace said, the Pentagon intends to limit all future mobilizations
to 12 months. Members of the Guard combat
brigades that have served in Iraq in recent years spent 18 months on active
duty - about six months in pre-deployment training in the United States,
followed by about 12 months in Iraq. Under the old policy, they could not be
sent back to Iraq because their cumulative time on active duty would exceed
24 months. Now that cumulative limit has been lifted, giving the Pentagon
more flexibility. A senior U.S. military
official who briefed reporters Thursday on Iraq-related developments said
that by next January, the Pentagon "probably will be calling again"
on National Guard combat brigades that previously served yearlong tours in
Iraq. Under Pentagon ground rules, the official could not be further
identified. Defense Secretary Robert
Gates, appearing with Pace, announced several other changes in Guard and
Reserve policy: - Although the Pentagon's
goal is to mobilize Guard and Reserve units no more frequently than one year
out of six, the demands of wartime will require calling up some units more
often than that. They provided no details on how many units would be
remobilized at the faster pace or when that would begin to happen. Army
officials had been saying for some time that more frequent mobilizations were
necessary because the active-duty force is being stretched too thin. Gates'
announcement is the first confirmation of the change. - To allow for more cohesion
among Guard and Reserve units sent into combat, they will be deployed as
whole units, rather than as partial units or as individuals plugged into a
unit they do not normally train with. - Extra pay will be provided
for Guard and Reserve troops who are required to mobilize more than once in
six years; active-duty troops who get less than two years between overseas
deployments also will get extra pay. Details were not provided. - Military commanders will
review their administration of a hardship waiver program "to ensure that
they have properly taken into account exceptional circumstances facing
military families of deployed service members." As part of Bush's plan for
boosting U.S. troop strength in Iraq, a brigade of National Guard soldiers
from Minnesota will have its yearlong tour in Iraq extended by 125 days, to
the end of July, and a Patriot missile battalion will be sent to the Persian
Gulf next month, the Army said Thursday. Maj. Randy Taylor, a
spokesman for the 3rd Battalion, 43rd Air Defense Artillery Regiment, at Fort
Bliss, Texas, said the Patriot unit was aware of the announced deployment. He
said no formal order had been received Thursday. The dispatching of a Patriot
missile battery, capable of defending against shorter-range ballistic missile
attacks, appeared linked to Bush's announcement Wednesday that he ordered an
aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East, which would be in easy
reach of Iran, whose nuclear program is a U.S. concern. Navy officials said the
carrier heading to the Gulf region is the USS John C. Stennis, which
previously had been in line to deploy to the Pacific. It was not clear
Thursday how the Pentagon intended to compensate in the Pacific for the
absence of the Stennis in that region, where a chief worry is North Korea. The Marines announced that
two infantry units - the 3rd Battalion, 4th Marine Regiment, and the 1st Battalion,
6th Marine Regiment - will stay in Iraq 60 to 90 days longer than scheduled.
That will enable the Marines to have a total of eight infantry battalions in
western Anbar province, instead of the current six, by February. Once the 60-
to 90-day extension is over, an additional two battalions will be sent in
early from their U.S. bases. Also, the 15th Marine
Expeditionary Unit, which combines infantry with a helicopter squadron and a
logistics battalion, totaling about 2,200 Marines, will stay in Anbar for 45
more days. Those extensions conform
with Bush's announcement that he was ordering 4,000 more Marines to Anbar. This article includes information
from The Associated Press. © Copyright 2006 by Capitol
Hill Blue External link: http://www.capitolhillblue.com/news2/2007/01/pentagon_memo_p.html |