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August 25th,
2007 - Iraq Body Count Running at Double Pace |
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Iraq Body Count Running at
Double Pace By Steven R. Hurst Associated Press August 25, 2007 This year's U.S. troop buildup
has succeeded in bringing violence in Baghdad down from peak levels, but the
death toll from sectarian attacks around the country is running nearly double
the pace from a year ago. Some of the recent bloodshed
appears the result of militant fighters drifting into parts of northern Iraq,
where they have fled after U.S.-led offensives. Baghdad, however, still
accounts for slightly more than half of all war-related killings - the same
percentage as a year ago, according to figures compiled by The Associated
Press. The tallies and trends offer
a sobering snapshot after an additional 30,000 U.S. troops began campaigns in
February to regain control of the Baghdad area. It also highlights one of the
major themes expected in next month's Iraq progress report to Congress: some
military headway, but extremist factions are far from broken. In street-level terms, it
means life for average Iraqis appears to be even more perilous and
unpredictable. The AP tracking includes
Iraqi civilians, government officials, police and security forces killed in
attacks such as gunfights and bombings, which are frequently blamed on Sunni
suicide strikes. It also includes execution-style killings - largely the work
of Shiite death squads. The figures are considered a
minimum based on AP reporting. The actual numbers are likely higher, as many
killings go unreported or uncounted. Insurgent deaths are not a part of the
Iraqi count. The findings include: - Iraq is suffering about double
the number of war-related deaths throughout the country compared with last
year - an average daily toll of 33 in 2006, and 62 so far this year. - Nearly 1,000 more people
have been killed in violence across Iraq in the first eight months of this year
than in all of 2006. So far this year, about 14,800 people have died in
war-related attacks and sectarian murders. AP reporting accounted for 13,811
deaths in 2006. The United Nations and other sources placed the 2006 toll far
higher. - Baghdad has gone from
representing 76 percent of all civilian and police war-related deaths in Iraq
in January to 52 percent in July, bringing it back to the same spot it was
roughly a year ago. - According to the Iraqi Red
Crescent Organization, the number of displaced Iraqis has more than doubled
since the start of the year, from 447,337 on Jan. 1 to 1.14 million on July
31. However, Brig. Gen. Richard
Sherlock, deputy director for operational planning for the Pentagon's Joint
Chiefs of Staff, said violence in Iraq "has continued to decline and is
at the lowest level since June 2006." He offered no statistics to
back his claim, but in a briefing with reporters at the Pentagon on Friday he
warned insurgents might try intensify attacks in Iraq to coincide with three
milestones: the sixth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks in the U.S., the
beginning of Ramadan and the report to Congress. The U.S. military did not
get all the additional American forces into Iraq until June 15, so it would
be premature to draw a final statistical picture of the effect of the added
troops. But initial calculations
validate fears that the Baghdad crackdown would push militants into districts
north of the capital, including Diyala province where U.S. force and Iraqi
soldiers have conducted major operation to clear its main city, Baqouba, of
al-Qaida in Iraq fighters. In July, the AP figures show
35 percent of all war-related killings occurred in northern provinces. The
figure one year ago was 22 percent. The final death count for
August also will likely be further oriented to the north after the savage
Aug. 14 attack by suspected al-Qaida truck bombers near the Syrian border in
Ninevah province. At least 500 villagers from the Yazidi sect were killed in
the deadliest civilian attack of the war. In the first months of this
year, many extremists fled to Baghdad and regions to the north after Sunni
tribesmen in Anbar, the sprawling desert province west of the capital, turned
on their erstwhile al-Qaida allies. Anthony Cordesman, an Iraq
expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington,
said many militants are trying to hang onto footholds in central Iraq. "Most of the force
shifts are still in the Baghdad ring and Diyala," he said in a recent
interview, predicting more spectacular attacks in the days leading to next
month's report to Congress by U.S. commander Gen. David Petraeus and
Ambassador Ryan Crocker. "Will it lead to more
bloody attacks as they try to exploit the American political debate?
Yes." Nora Bensahel, a military
analyst at the Rand Corp., said that northern Iraq had become increasingly
destabilized over the past few months. The insurgents have made a
"concerted effort to concentrate attacks in other parts of the
country," Bensahel said, in part to escape the increased U.S. troop
presence in Baghdad and in part to give the impression that no place in Iraq
is safe. Mostly, she said, the
insurgents have shifted their focus to the Baghdad suburbs, but they are
particularly keen to undermine the notion that northern Iraq is a
"success story" for Washington and its key Iraqi partners -
including the Kurds who have maintained a near-autonomous state in the north
since the early 1990s. Staging attacks in the north
"has a symbolic effect," she said. And beyond that, Bensahel
said the tactic puts the United States in a difficult situation. "There isn't an ability
to move north in any significant numbers without abandoning Baghdad" - a
change in strategy that Washington is not prepared to make, she said. But a huge problem also
looms in the south, the center of Shiite political and spiritual influence
and the site of Iraq's main oil fields. There are daily gunbattles
between the Mahdi Army militia - loyal to radical Shiite cleric Muqtada
al-Sadr - and the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, the powerhouse Shiite
political party that controls most of the bureaucracy and police forces in
southern Iraq. This month, the governors of
two southern provinces loyal to the Supreme Islamic Council were killed in
roadside bombings. The clashes are expected to
grow more intense as Britain draws downs its forces in southern Iraq over the
coming months. The effect of the shrinking British presence is already being
felt, said Cordesman in an assessment released Aug. 22. "The end result was to
turn the four provinces in southeastern Iraq over to feuding Shiite factions
whose actions were mixed with corruption, extortion and links to criminal
activities," he wrote. And there are increasing
signs that whole regions of the south are inclined to seek increased autonomy
from the center - moves that many Iraqis fear could lead to partition of the
country. In Najaf - the spiritual
heart for Shiites around the world - the provincial spokesman, Ahmed Deibel,
told AP early this month that the gas turbine generator there had been
removed from the national electricity grid. The unilateral action has
contributed to several nationwide power blackouts. He said the provincial plant
produced 50 megawatts, while the province needed at least 200 megawatts. "What we produce is not
enough even for us. We disconnected it from the national grid (Aug. 1)
because the people in Baghdad were getting too much, leaving little
electricity for Najaf," he said. The No. 2 U.S. commander,
Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, has also expressed fears of a big insurgent attack in
the final days before the report to Congress, but also claimed the offensives
have shaken militant fighters in Baghdad and environs. "Due to the constant
pressure and depletion of their leadership, extremists have been pushed out
of many population centers and are on the move, seeking other places to
operate within the country," Odierno said last week. "As a result, we are
now in pursuit of al-Qaida and other extremist elements, and we'll continue
to aggressively target their shrinking areas of influence," he said. "Over the coming weeks,
we plan to conduct quick-strike raids against remaining extremist sanctuaries
and staging areas," Odierno said. Copyright © 2007 The
Associated Press. External link: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070825/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_counting_the_dead |