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May 17th,
2007 - Iraq is on the Verge of Collapse: Report |
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Iraq is on the Verge of Collapse:
Report By Ibon Villelabeitia Reuters May 17, 2007 3:05PM EDT Baghdad - Iraq's government
has lost control of vast areas to powerful local factions and the country is
on the verge of collapse and fragmentation, a leading British think-tank said
on Thursday. Chatham House also said
there was not one civil war in Iraq, but "several civil wars"
between rival communities, and accused Iraq's main neighbors - Iran, Saudi
Arabia and Turkey - of having reasons "for seeing the instability there
continue." "It can be argued that
Iraq is on the verge of being a failed state which faces the distinct
possibility of collapse and fragmentation," it said in a report. "The Iraqi government
is not able to exert authority evenly or effectively over the country. Across
huge swathes of territory, it is largely irrelevant in terms of ordering
social, economic and political life." The report also said that a
U.S.-backed security crackdown in Baghdad launched in February has failed to
reduce overall violence across the country, as insurgent groups have just
shifted their activities outside the capital. While cautioning that Iraq
might not ultimately exist as a united entity, the 12-page report said a
draft law to distribute Iraq's oil wealth equitably among Sunni Arabs,
Shi'ites and ethnic Kurds was "the key to ensuring Iraq's
survival." "It will be oil revenue
that keeps the state together rather than any attempt to build a coherent
national project in the short term," the influential think-tank said. The oil law, among
benchmarks Washington has set Baghdad as critical steps to end sectarian
violence, has yet to be approved by parliament. Ethnic Kurds, whose
autonomous Kurdistan region holds large unproven reserves, oppose the draft's
wording. Rather that one civil war
pitting majority Shi'ites against Sunnis nationwide, the paper said Iraq's
"cross-cutting conflicts" were driven by power struggles between
sectarian, ethnic and tribal groups with differing regional, political and
ideological goals as they compete for the country's resources. The author of the report,
Middle East expert Gareth Stansfield, said instability in Iraq was "not
necessarily contrary to the interests" of Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. "(Iraq) is now a
theatre in which Iran can 'fight' the U.S. without doing so openly,"
Stansfield said, adding that Iran was the "most capable foreign
power" in Iraq in terms of influencing future events, more so than the
United States. The rise to power of Iraq's
long-oppressed Shi'ite majority has caused concern in Sunni Gulf states,
particularly Saudi Arabia, which deeply distrusts non-Arab, Shi'ite Iran's
influence in Iraq, Stansfield wrote. Should a U.S. withdrawal
herald the beginning of a full-scale Sunni-Shi'ite civil war in Iraq, Saudi
Arabia "might not stand by," the paper said, "with the
possibility of Iran and Saudi Arabia fighting each other through proxies in
Iraq". © Reuters 2006. All rights
reserved. External link: http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSKIM74750720070517 |