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October 12th, 2006 - Troop Levels
in Iraq Could Hold Steady through 2010 |
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Troop Levels in Iraq Could
Hold Steady through 2010 Army Readies for Long Stay By Bryan Bender Boston Globe October 12, 2006 Washington - The Army is
making provisions to keep at least 140,000 troops in Iraq through 2010,
senior Pentagon officials said yesterday, in a stark signal that top
commanders see little prospect of reducing American force levels soon and are
bracing for more violence. Pentagon officials sought to
play down the projection, stressing that it does not necessarily mean that
the United States will maintain current force levels for the next four years.
Instead, they said, the Army - which provides by far the most personnel to US
forces in Iraq - is simply taking prudent steps to ensure that it has
sufficient units to rotate into Iraq for the foreseeable future. “This is not a prediction
that things are going poorly or better,” General Peter Schoomaker, the Army
chief of staff, told reporters in Washington at the annual meeting of the
Association of the United States Army . “It's just that I have to have enough
ammo in the magazine that I can continue to shoot as long as they want us to
shoot.” Just a few months ago, US
commanders in Iraq said they were hoping to recommend a modest troop
reduction - of about two Army brigades, or up to 15,000 soldiers - by the end
of this year or in early 2007. Commanders originally had planned to reduce US
forces by 100,000 by the end of 2003. Since then, they have been cautious
about making predictions of any cuts, and President Bush has been adamant
against setting a firm deadline for a total withdrawal. Military officers and
private analysts saw yesterday's remarks by Schoomaker as evidence that the
top brass see little light at the end of the tunnel in Iraq amid worsening
sectarian violence and a sudden spike in US military deaths. Schoomaker spoke
on the same day that a new academic study estimated the Iraqi death toll since
2003 at more than 600,000, far higher than most estimates. Independent analysts say the
Army's planning reflected the reality that the Iraqi Army and police, which
have made modest progress in providing security, have also suffered serious
setbacks. They said the Iraqi forces are a long way from being ready to take
the lead on security - long considered the linchpin to an eventual US troop
withdrawal. On troop levels, the
Pentagon has long made contingency plans for worst-case scenarios in Iraq, said
Michael O'Hanlon, a defense specialist at the nonpartisan Brookings
Institution in Washington. “But no one would have thought the worst case
could last till 2010,” O'Hanlon said. “Schoomaker is saying not only is it
the worst-case, but ‘it is my best guess.’ That is really something else.” The Iraqi death toll
continues to mount. More than 100 Iraqis were found executed in a single day
this week, apparent victims of an expanding sectarian war between Iraq's
Shi'ite and Sunni Muslims. Meanwhile, the growing
violence has exacted a heavy toll on US troops. In September, 71 Americans
were killed, the second deadliest month this year after April, when 76 died. So far this month, an
average of four US soldiers have been killed every day, a trend that if it
continues would mark one of the deadliest months of the conflict, according
to the Pentagon. Secretary of Defense Donald
Rumsfeld told reporters after Schoomaker made his comments yesterday that the
planning for future deployments to Iraq goes beyond the Army. He said the US
Joint Forces Command, based in Norfolk, Va., and responsible for training
forces from all the military branches, has briefed him on other measures that
would be needed if the US deployment extends for several more years. “We’re looking around
corners, up ahead, and asking ourselves how we would do things,” Rumsfeld
said at a Pentagon press conference that included the top US commander in
Iraq, General George Casey. Rumsfeld expressed
confidence that the Army, already under strain from multiple tours to Iraq
and Afghanistan since 2001, is up to the task if a large ground force is
needed in Iraq for longer than previously predicted. “The options that we have
are numerous,” Rumsfeld said, citing the ability to rely more heavily on the
Air Force and the Navy, which are already filling some nontraditional roles
in Iraq, providing security for convoys. Casey expressed confidence
that the Army, Marine Corps, and other US forces in Iraq are up to the job -
as long as it takes. “We will succeed in Iraq,
but it will take patience and will,” Casey said. Critics of the war were
expected to seize on the disclosure that the Army is planning for a far
longer war than predicted before the March 2003 invasion. Senator John F. Kerry of
Massachusetts, commenting on the fourth anniversary yesterday of Congress’s
vote to grant Bush the authority to use force against Saddam Hussein,
repeated his call for a firm deadline to begin drawing down US troops in Iraq
as the only way to ensure the Iraqi government takes more responsibility. “Today of all days, we
should be having this debate, openly, honestly, and in a way that honors
America's troops and our best traditions,” Kerry wrote in a posting on the
Internet blog HuffingtonPost.com. “One of the things I feel most personally
is that a Congress that shares responsibility for getting us into Iraq needs
to take responsibility for getting us out the right way.” Military specialists agreed that
unless the security situation improves or the Bush administration charts a
new course in Iraq, the pressure on the Army in maintaining the mission will
only grow. The United States could be forced to call on ever-larger numbers
of reservists and National Guard troops. In the first year of the war, Guard
and reserve troops made up more than one-third of the American force, but the
Pentagon has reduced the reliance on part-time soldiers in order to free up
state militias for domestic emergencies. Retired General Jack Keane,
the Army's vice chief of staff from 1999 to 2003 and now a senior adviser to
Rumsfeld, said that given the situation on the ground he is not surprised
that the Army is preparing to keep the current force in Iraq for the long
haul. “There may have been some
planning or thought that at the end of 2006 or early 2007 we would be able to
draw down some of our forces,” he said. “But the enemy has a vote, and they
are absolutely convinced they can win. There seems to be no quit in them, and
we have to deal with it.” Material from the Associated
Press was used in this report. External link:
http://www.boston.com/news/world/articles/2006/10/12/troop_levels_in_iraq_could_hold_steady_through_2010/ |